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31 August 2020

What is earthquake risk analysis and Poisson model?

Investigation area is located in Kocaeli province, Izmit district and the surrounding area covering 100 km radius, between 1900-2019, 4.5 The study area is located in Kocaeli, Izmit town and the surrounding area with a radius of 100 km covering a region between the years of 1900-2019, 4.5<M<5.0 between, 78; 5.0<M<5.5, between 18; 5.5<M<6.0 between... Read More

Investigation area is located in Kocaeli province, Izmit district and the surrounding area covering 100 km radius, between 1900-2019, 4.5

The study area is located in Kocaeli, Izmit town and the surrounding area with a radius of 100 km covering a region between the years of 1900-2019, 4.5<M<5.0 between, 78; 5.0<M<5.5, between 18; 5.5<M<6.0 between 11; 6.0<M<6.5 between 1; 6.5<M<7.0 1 7.0<M<7.5 and an earthquake occurred.

Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis of the above-mentioned region has been conducted. Poisson probability distribution and methods applied. The relationship between size and number of formations is examined. Last century in the region 4.5, 5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 6.5, 7.0 and the probability of 7.5 magnitude earthquakes in 10, 50, 75 and 100 years and mean recurrence periods were studied.

Poission probability distribution according to the magnitude earthquake m 6.0 percent 54,6 likely to be in the next 10 years; within 50 years likely to be percent 98,1; 99,7 percent within 100 years and likely to be likely to be 75 years; 100% average recurrence period of 13 years; M likely to be within 10 years, a 6.5 magnitude earthquake; %a 28.2; likely to be within 50 years; %81,0; likely to be 75 years; %within 100 years and likely to be 91,7; %96,4 average recurrence period of 30 years; Magnitude m 7.0 earthquake likely to be within 10 years; %13,0; 50 years; 50.2%; 75 years; 64.9% and 100 years; 75.2%, mean recurrence period 72 years and M 7.5 magnitude earthquake 10 years; 5.7%; 50 years; 25.4%; 75 years; 35.6% and 100 years; 44.4%, mean recurrence period 170 years.

According to the relationship between Joyner and Boore reduction, the probability of an M 7.0 magnitude earthquake being overcome within 50 years was calculated as 50 percent. According to the Poisson Probability Distribution, the correlations of different researchers were found to be between 0.17 g and 0.83 g and mean 0.41 gram.

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